The Scottish Mortgage (LSE: SMT) share price has lit up my portfolio, jumping almost 20% in the last three months.
The Baillie Gifford-managed investment trust is up 21.94% over the last year, as it continues to recover from the brutal 2022 sell-off, when the tech crash knocked 50% of its share price. It enjoyed a real bounce from the post-presidential election ‘Trump bump’, which boosted its tech-heavy portfolio.
With Elon Musk in favour with the President-elect, investors were reminded that Scottish Mortgage has exposure to Musk’s unquoted SpaceX operation. It now makes up 5.1% of the total portfolio, the third biggest holding. Scottish Mortgage could do very nicely if SpaceX ever goes public. Tesla’s in sixth place, worth 3.5% of the fund.
Can this FTSE 100 growth stock keep flying?
With Amazon, Meta Platforms and Nvidia all numbered in the trust’s top 10 holdings, it gives investors plentiful exposure to big US tech. The fund isn’t a pure US play. It’s 57.7% invested in the States but 17% invested in Europe and 16.4% in Asia. So there’s some diversification here.
Scottish Mortgage shares have dipped 3.3% this morning despite the lack of company news. I suspect this is down to what some have labelled the ‘Trump slump’, as markets calm down and look at the challenges ahead.
While the US Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time in 2024 yesterday (18 December), it signalled a slower rate of cuts in 2025. Inflation’s looking sticky, and this could make it harder for Trump to pump up the US economy even further.
I’ll stick with my Scottish play
After its strong run, Scottish Mortgage had to come down to earth. It’s all part of the investment cycle. The trust seems to be a geared play on markets, rising faster in the good times, falling faster in the bad. It’s best suited to long-term investors, who are far-sighted enough to look beyond the short-term ups and downs.
That’s not as easy as it sounds. I was on the verge of exiting my position before the recent spike, thinking it was a bit too risky for me these days. But betting against big tech and the US has been a loser’s play for years, so now I’ve renewed my faith.
I’m still concerned by its hefty exposure to privately-quoted companies, as I have to rely on lead manager Tom Slater’s judgement on whether they’re any good. And to answer my own question, yes, I do think the gravity will exert its pull on Scottish Mortgage next year.
I’m buckling up for a rough ride but I won’t sell. Nor will I buy more. Instead, I’ll go hunting for bargain priced FTSE 100 shares. The UK’s blue-chip index hasn’t exactly had its rocket boosters on lately, but it looks better value as a result.
The post Will the rocketing Scottish Mortgage share price crash back to earth in 2025? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Harvey Jones has positions in Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Amazon, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
